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Dissertation Definitie Inflatie

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Inflatie (geldontwaarding)

Definitie

Inflatie is een stijging van het algemeen prijspeil.

Inflatie berekenen

Het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) houdt nauwkeurig prijsstijgingen en -dalingen van goederen en diensten in Nederland bij. Maandelijks worden op Statline, de website van het CBS, de veranderingen ten opzichte van de maand ervoor weergegeven. De inflatie wordt gemeten aan de hand de consumentenprijsindex (CPI). Omdat het onmogelijk is om van alle producten de prijsveranderingen bij te houden, kijkt het CBS naar de gezinsconsumptie van een gemiddeld Nederlands huishouden.

Voedingsmiddelen, huurprijzen, energiekosten en andere veel voorkomende bestedingen worden meegenomen in de berekening. De verzamelde gegevens worden vervolgens onderverdeeld in categorieën. Voorbeelden zijn onderwijs, gezondheid, kleding, huisvesting en vrije tijdsbesteding. Iedere categorie krijgt een eigen wegingsfactor. De prijs van huisvesting weegt bijvoorbeeld zwaarder dan de prijs van vrije tijdsbesteding.

Hieronder staat een versimpeld voorbeeld van de uitgaven van een gemiddeld gezin opgedeeld in productgroepen. Bij het berekenen van de consumentenprijsindex wordt altijd uitgegaan van een basisjaar. Het basisjaar is het jaar waarmee wordt vergeleken. In dit geval wordt voor 2016 gekeken wat de prijsverandering is ten opzichte van basisjaar 2015. Als grondslag voor de berekening van indexcijfers wordt het basisjaar altijd gelijkgesteld 100.

categoriewegingsfactorindexcijfers prijzen 2016 (basisjaar 2015)
voeding41%103
onderwijs15%98
kleding23%105
gezondheid21%102

Uit de grafiek valt af te lezen dat de prijs van voeding is gestegen van 100 in 2015 naar 103 in 2016. Dit houdt in dat de gemiddelde prijs van voeding 3% hoger ligt dan het jaar ervoor. De prijs van onderwijs is echter met 2% gedaald ten opzicht van 2015. De indexcijfers van de afzonderlijke categorieën heten partiële prijsindexcijfers. Partieel betekent gedeeltelijk. Om de gehele prijsstijging te berekenen moeten de categorieën bij elkaar worden opgeteld en rekening worden gehouden met de wegingsfactoren. De categorie voeding weegt met 41% zwaarder dan onderwijs met 15%. De berekening van de CPI is als volgt:

Voor deze groep van goederen is de gemiddelde prijsstijging 2,5% ten opzichte van 2015. In dit voorbeeld zijn maar vier categorieën opgenomen. Het CBS neemt in de werkelijkheid veel meer categorieën mee in haar berekening.

Ontstaan inflatie

Er zijn vele economen die hun hoofd hebben gebroken over het ontstaan van inflatie. Volgens de econoom John Keynes ontstaat inflatie als gevolg van veranderingen in vraag en aanbod. Wanneer een product steeds populairder wordt, stijgt de vraag. De afgelopen 100 jaar is de vraag naar auto’s sterk toegenomen. Wanneer de vraag naar auto’s hoger is dan er auto’s geproduceerd kunnen worden, zal de prijs stijgen. De oorzaak van inflatie ligt in dit voorbeeld aan de vraagkant van de economie.

Een andere reden voor inflatie zijn hogere productiekosten. Zo kan de prijs van olie stijgen, omdat er steeds minder voorradig is. De olievelden raken op en wanneer er geen nieuwe olievelden worden gevonden kan een tekort ontstaan. Aangezien er veel bedrijfstakken afhankelijk zijn van olie, heeft een tekort aan olie invloed op de prijs van vele producten. De oorzaak ligt in dit geval aan de aanbodkant van de economie.

Het ontstaan van inflatie kan ook worden verklaard als gevolg van de stijging van belastingen. In 2013 is de BTW in Nederland bijvoorbeeld structureel verhoogd van 19% naar 21%. Dit houdt in dat een groot deel van de producten in Nederland duurder zijn geworden voor consumenten.

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